哈佛大學研究指武漢去年八月已爆Covid-19


  • Citi

    其實都唔算最新消息,見冇人講討論下。

    研究論文出處:
    「Analysis of hospital traffic and search engine data in Wuhan China indicates early disease activity in the Fall of 2019」
    https://dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/42669767

    Abstract
    The global COVID-19 pandemic was originally linked to a zoonotic spillover event in Wuhan’s Huanan Seafood Market in November or December of 2019. However, recent evidence suggests that the virus may have already been circulating at the time of the outbreak. Here we use previously validated data streams - satellite imagery of hospital parking lots and Baidu search queries of disease related terms - to investigate this possibility. We observe an upward trend in hospital traffic and search volume beginning in late Summer and early Fall 2019. While queries of the respiratory symptom “cough” show seasonal fluctuations coinciding with yearly influenza seasons, “diarrhea” is a more COVID-19 specific symptom and only shows an association with the current epidemic. The increase of both signals precede the documented start of the COVID-19 pandemic in December, highlighting the value of novel digital sources for surveillance of emerging pathogens

    相關新聞:
    「China, scientists dismiss Harvard study suggesting COVID-19 was spreading in Wuhan in August」
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-research/china-scientists-dismiss-harvard-study-suggesting-covid-19-was-spreading-in-wuhan-in-august-idUSKBN23G0OM

    LONDON (Reuters) - Beijing dismissed as “ridiculous” a Harvard Medical School study of hospital traffic and search engine data that suggested the new coronavirus may already have been spreading in China last August, and scientists said it offered no convincing evidence of when the outbreak began.

    The research, which has not been peer-reviewed by other scientists, used satellite imagery of hospital parking lots in Wuhan - where the disease was first identified in late 2019 - and data for symptom-related queries on search engines for things such as “cough” and “diarrhoea”.

    The study’s authors said increased hospital traffic and symptom search data in Wuhan preceded the documented start of the coronavirus pandemic in December 2019.

    Youtube片:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4dgkg2M71I


  • Citi

    伊個角度都幾獨特,不過成篇文有小小求其,成份實驗報告咁
    https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/42669767/Satellite_Images_Baidu_COVID19_manuscript_DASH.pdf

    篇文重點得下面幅圖,連數據解釋都無,雖然見到幾個數據都增加,但具體增加幾多居然無討論,照規矩點都要列個表比較下
    0_1592029354500_wuhan.png

    此外,百度指數係全國指數,唔知當時武漢地區嘅搜索情況係點

    如果可以比較下其他地區(如武漢周邊,北上廣深)嘅醫院停車場圖片,應該更有説服力


  • Citi

    @恆智德 我諗係因為呢啲追尋真相嘅研究係唔會有大學夠膽俾錢資助:golden-clown:

    淨係研究虫蟈特色瀉猥豬疑就得架啦:golden-bye:


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